TAIPEI — Taiwan is poised to face a slightly drier-than-usual transition into the 2025 plum rain season, with the potential for warmer-than-average temperatures in June, according to the Central Weather Administration (CWA) in its latest three-month seasonal forecast released in late March.
Despite being within the normal rainfall range, the forecast highlights growing concerns for water conservation, agriculture, and energy production in the face of unpredictable weather brought about by global climate shifts.
🌦️ Understanding the Forecast: The Plum Rain Season Outlook
The plum rain season — spanning May to June — is a critical period for Taiwan’s water reservoirs and agriculture. However, CWA’s recent models suggest that the main rainfall belt, which typically brings heavy moisture to the island, may shift southeast this year, stretching more dominantly from the Philippines to the northwestern Pacific.
This would leave Taiwan on the outer edge of the rainfall concentration, translating into less frequent but potentially more intense rainstorms due to unstable frontal systems.
🔄 Why This Matters: Taiwan’s Water Security and Agriculture
- Taiwan’s reservoir levels are already under close observation due to limited rainfall in previous months.
- Farmers, especially in the central and southern regions, depend heavily on spring and plum rains for irrigating rice paddies and seasonal crops.
- Reduced rainfall may impact power generation, especially hydroelectric capacity, raising reliance on fossil fuels or imported energy during peak summer demand.
🌡️ Temperature Outlook: Normal to Above Average
- April and May are expected to bring near-normal temperatures, according to the CWA.
- By June, Taiwan may experience warmer-than-usual weather, aligning with broader global warming trends observed across East Asia in recent years.
- Urban heat effects will likely amplify discomfort in cities like Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung, increasing the public’s demand for air conditioning and potentially spiking electricity use.
⛅ The Science Behind It: Why Forecasting Spring Weather Is Difficult
Spring weather in Taiwan is known for its volatility. This is due to a weakened northern continental high-pressure system and the gradual strengthening of the Pacific high.
These two systems battle for influence, creating instability:
- Cold air from the north can still push down in early April.
- Warmer moisture-laden air from the south begins to move in.
- These interactions trigger stationary fronts near the island, bringing short, intense rainfall and thunderstorms.
This is why the CWA cautioned about a higher-than-usual uncertainty in spring and early summer forecasts.
📊 Data Snapshot: Taiwan’s Rainfall Trends (Past vs. Present)
| Year | Average Plum Rainfall (mm) | Rainfall Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 725 mm | -8% below average |
| 2024 | 690 mm | -13% below average |
| 2025 (Forecast) | ~640–670 mm (estimated) | Expected to be below average |
📌 Summary of Key Points (Plum rain season taiwan 2025)
- Taiwan’s April–June weather is expected to be slightly drier than usual.
- Plum rain belt may shift southeast, reducing Taiwan’s rainfall exposure.
- June temperatures are forecasted to be warmer than average.
- Agriculture, reservoir levels, and energy production may face stress.
- Weather predictions carry higher uncertainty in spring due to atmospheric transitions.
📋 FAQs
What is the plum rain season in Taiwan?
The plum rain season (May–June) is characterized by persistent stationary fronts that bring significant rainfall to Taiwan and parts of East Asia.
Why is Taiwan expecting less rain this year?
Climate models show the primary rainfall belt shifting away from Taiwan due to altered high-pressure patterns and ocean temperature anomalies.
How could this impact daily life in Taiwan?
There may be water restrictions in drier areas, higher utility costs due to increased power demand, and reduced agricultural yields.
Are these forecasts reliable?
Spring and early summer forecasts have higher uncertainty due to unstable frontal systems and rapidly changing pressure systems in the region.
How is Taiwan preparing?
Authorities are closely monitoring reservoir levels and may implement staggered irrigation or water rationing measures if needed.
