Taiwanese Perceptions of U.S. Commitment to National Security Amid Trump’s Second Term

A recent survey conducted by Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s leading research institution, revealed that more than 40 percent of Taiwanese people believe the U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s protection will decrease under the second term of U.S. President Donald Trump. This marks a shift in public opinion, as many citizens express concern about the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Taiwan-China relations. The survey, known as the “American Portrait Survey,” collected data from 1,249 Taiwanese adults in mid-March, shedding light on the public’s sentiments regarding Taiwan’s national security in the context of shifting U.S. policies.

Key Findings:

1. Decrease in U.S. Commitment to Taiwan’s Protection:
   • Among the survey respondents, 44.4% expressed concern that the U.S. would offer less protection to Taiwan during President Trump’s second term. Specifically, 21.1% believed the U.S. commitment would be “much less,” and 23.3% thought it would be “somewhat less.”
   • A smaller proportion (5.7%) expected the U.S. to offer “somewhat more” protection, while 4.6% anticipated a “much more” robust commitment.
   • The largest group, 38.5%, believed that the U.S. commitment would “remain the same” as in the past few years, prior to Trump’s return to office.
2. Concerns Over U.S.-China Negotiations:
   • A significant majority, 59%, expressed concerns that the U.S. and China might reach agreements that could undermine Taiwan’s national interests. This reflects growing anxiety over the potential for strategic compromises that may be made between the two global powers at Taiwan’s expense.
3. Rising Doubts About U.S. Military Support:
   • The survey results show a notable increase in doubt regarding U.S. military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the 2024 survey, 15.3% of respondents believed the U.S. “definitely would not” intervene, with 16.4% saying it was “unlikely.” In 2025, these figures rose significantly, with 18.7% asserting that the U.S. “definitely would not” intervene and 23.7% considering military support “unlikely.”
4. Erosion of Trust in the U.S.:
   • The survey also highlighted a decline in Taiwanese trust in the U.S. when compared to previous years. In 2024, 50% of respondents disagreed with the statement that the U.S. was a trustworthy country. By 2025, this number had risen to 59.6%, signaling a deepening skepticism toward U.S. policies and their long-term implications for Taiwan’s security.
5. Shifting Public Perception Due to Trump’s Policies:
   • Wu Wen-chin, a research fellow at Academia Sinica, noted that the survey results reflect growing anxiety among the Taiwanese public due to President Trump’s assertive stance on international relations. Trump’s approach has contributed to the increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitment to Taiwan, particularly in relation to military intervention and diplomatic assurances.
   • Trump’s previous administration had witnessed shifts in U.S. policy towards Taiwan, particularly regarding arms sales, trade agreements, and the nature of the U.S.-Taiwan alliance. However, many Taiwanese citizens are now uncertain about the continuity of these policies under his potential second term.

Detailed Insights:

• Taiwan’s National Security and the U.S.-China Relationship:
  The survey results highlight the delicate balance Taiwan must navigate in the wake of U.S.-China negotiations. While Taiwan has historically relied on U.S. support for its defense, the shifting geopolitical landscape, including China’s increasing assertiveness in the region, has prompted concerns over Taiwan’s long-term security. The fear that any U.S.-China rapprochement could result in Taiwan being sidelined is a significant concern, especially given Taiwan’s geopolitical vulnerability.
• Trump’s Unpredictability and Taiwan’s Strategic Outlook:
  Taiwan’s government and public have long viewed the U.S. as a critical security partner. However, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s approach to Taiwan, which often oscillates between strong rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, has created a sense of instability. This is exacerbated by concerns over the U.S. prioritizing economic or strategic interests with China, which could leave Taiwan vulnerable in a worst-case scenario.
• Implications for Taiwan’s Policy Decisions:
  The growing skepticism among Taiwanese citizens regarding U.S. military support and the trustworthiness of American diplomacy signals a critical moment for Taiwan’s foreign policy. Taiwan may need to bolster its own defense capabilities, enhance regional alliances, and pursue closer ties with other countries to ensure its security, regardless of the shifting dynamics in U.S.-China relations.

Conclusion:

This survey highlights the complex and evolving relationship between Taiwan, the U.S., and China, as Taiwanese citizens grapple with the uncertainty of U.S. policy under President Trump’s potential second term. The increase in doubts about U.S. military support and the rise in skepticism about the U.S. as a trustworthy ally underscore the importance of Taiwan reassessing its security strategies. Taiwan may need to explore additional diplomatic avenues and strengthen its defense mechanisms in light of these shifting public sentiments and the broader geopolitical landscape.

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