Taiwan is witnessing a significant uptick in COVID-19 cases, with an 88.2% surge in outpatient and emergency room visits last week, according to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The increase marks a turning point in the country’s post-pandemic management, driven largely by the emergence of the NB.1.8.1 variant—a sub-lineage of the XDV family related to JN.1.
According to CDC officials, this new wave could peak between mid-to-late June, with weekly case numbers projected to hit 55,000 to 65,000, a major jump from this week’s 19,097. While current vaccines and antiviral treatments remain effective, experts caution that Taiwan’s immunity from last year’s infection wave is waning, leaving a larger portion of the population vulnerable.
🔍 Detailed Breakdown and Original Insights
🧬 New Variant: NB.1.8.1 Gains Ground
Six weeks ago, Taiwan’s dominant strain was the XEC variant, but it has since been overtaken by NB.1.8.1, part of the XDV family, known for its enhanced transmissibility.
The XDV family is genetically close to the JN.1 lineage, a variant of global concern previously dominant in countries like the U.S., Japan, and parts of Europe. Taiwan’s genome surveillance shows that NB.1.8.1 has outcompeted other strains in only five weeks.
📈 Waning Immunity
One of the main factors driving the current outbreak is reduced population-level immunity. Many Taiwanese gained natural immunity during the previous summer surge, but that protection has now diminished.
This decline, combined with the more infectious NB.1.8.1, has created a “perfect storm” for community transmission, especially in urban areas.
🏥 Current Statistics (May 11–19, 2025):
- Outpatient & Emergency Visits: 19,097
- Severe Cases: 93
- Deaths Reported: 4
- Forecasted Peak (Mid-Late June): 55,000–65,000 weekly visits
- Historical Reference: Last summer’s peak saw 130,000 weekly visits
💉 Medical Preparedness
CDC spokesperson Lo Yi-chun assured the public that Taiwan’s healthcare infrastructure is prepared:
- 5-month supply of Molnupiravir, a COVID-19 antiviral
- Rapid test kits stockpiled and weekly production boosted to 150,000–160,000 units
- Tests will be readily available at convenience stores, pharmacy chains, and local clinics
💬 Why It Matters
This spike comes amid a broader regional uptick in COVID-19 infections, including in South Korea and parts of Southeast Asia. Taiwan, with its dense population and high urbanization, remains vulnerable to rapid viral shifts, especially if people drop their guard.
🧠 Editorial Analysis: What’s Different This Time?
Unlike past waves, this surge is not expected to overwhelm the healthcare system. However, complacency remains a risk. With much of the population resuming pre-pandemic activities, mask-wearing, testing, and booster uptake have all declined. The government may need to re-evaluate public messaging to encourage preventive behavior without triggering panic.
Also notable is Taiwan’s rapid genomic surveillance and testing infrastructure, which remains one of the most efficient in Asia. The country’s ability to adapt testing capacity based on variant spread is critical in limiting the duration and scale of the outbreak.
❓ FAQs
What is the NB.1.8.1 COVID variant in Taiwan?
The NB.1.8.1 variant is a sub-lineage of the XDV family, closely related to the globally known JN.1 variant. It has higher transmissibility and has quickly become dominant in Taiwan.
When is the expected peak of this COVID wave in Taiwan?
Health authorities predict the wave will peak in mid-to-late June, with 55,000 to 65,000 weekly outpatient visits expected.
Are current vaccines effective against the new variant?
Yes, existing JN.1-based vaccines and antivirals like Molnupiravir are still considered effective against NB.1.8.1.
What’s being done to ensure enough testing?
The Taiwan FDA is coordinating with local manufacturers to produce up to 160,000 rapid tests weekly, which will be sold through retail channels across the country.
Should people be concerned or panic?
There’s no need for panic, but caution is advised. Continue using rapid tests when symptomatic, wear masks in crowded places, and consider booster shots if eligible.
